The 2026Farrer by-electionwont change the course of Australian politics, but it might give it a solid nudge.

Despite 12 starters, Farrer looks like a two-horse race between Pauline Hansons One Nation (PHON) candidateDavid Farleyand IndependentMichelle Milthorpe.

Betting agencies have Farley romping it in, Milthorpe trailing badly in second and the other ten eating Riverina dust.

The horror Labor loss of 2019 put political punting into its proper perspective as a mugs game, a reflection of hope, not a way to pick a winner.

There is no doubt that eight of the candidates have zero chance of unduly troubling the scorer. They can be classified as dreamers, RWNJsor has-beens.

A tight by-election race in Farrer is set to spotlight One Nations call for negative net migration against the labour realities of regional Australia.

On the dreamer side, we have:

Independent candidateGary Pappin, a Balranald-born local running on the sound idea that Riverina LGAs should get an increase in federal funding and that no-cost childcare should be available to all Riverina residents.

Lucas Ellisfrom the Sustainable Australia Party. Admirable aims, perhaps, but bugger-all impact or grunt.

IndependentRoger Woodwardis a chartered accountant and experienced bushfire fighter who holds a NSW RFS long service medal. Roger wants to abolish student debt, fund more schools and provide additional funding for Indigenous housing, among other things. So, no chance.

Greens candidateRichard Hendriealso ran againstSussan Leyin 2025 when he pulled 4.93% of the primary vote, a 4% swing against the Greens. If this trend continues...

PharmacistAimee Pearsonis the Legalise Cannabis Party candidate for Farrer. The party, formerly the Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) party, has not previously contested the electorate.

It's hard to know just how much support there is for legal pot in the Riverina, but its worth noting Griffith, Australias one-time grass capital, is the second-largest city in the electorate and theres probably a lot of users in the boonies. At the 2025 Election, the party picked up about3% of Senate votesin NSW.

While Australian primary producers are understandably uneasy over wars and tariffs, they are currently enjoying exceptional prosperity.

On the RWNJside, we have...

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidatePeter Sinclairalso contested Farrer in 2025. Back then, Sinclair, a former Hume Council employee, managed a primary vote of 3.47% with a swing against his party of nearly 2%. He did a lot better than the Trumpets candidate, who racked up a risible 2.37%, but in 2026 against PHON? Sinclairs chickens have no hope of hatching.

Rebecca Scrivenis the Family First candidate with all that entails. She, along with FF boss Lyle Shelton, believes parliaments function best when members are grounded in the Judeo-Christian values that shaped Australia.

Rebecca got the hump when PHON candidate David Farleyreposteda couple of raunchy OnlyFans Facebook posts and she announced that because of this moral lapse, Family Firstwould not preference Farley. When Scriven ran in Farrer in 2025, she managed just 2.15% of the primary vote, so PHON are hardly trembling.

Former SenatorGerard Rennick's People First has selected architectJamie Bonnefinas its Farrer candidate. Gerrards vanity project picked up less than 1% of the national vote at the 2025 Federal Election. Hes unlikely to have his ego stroked in Farrer in 2026.

The Liberal and National parties make up the has-beens.

Between them, they have had a stranglehold on Farrer since 1949, including a deputy PM inTim Fischerand a leader of the Liberal Party in Sussan Ley. Ley was first elected in 2001 and held the seat at the 2025 Election with over 43% of first preferences despite an 8% swing against her.

Historically, it has been the bluest of blue-ribbon seats, but thenAngus Taylorrolled Sussan, Sussan resigned from Parliament and everything changed.

Because the seat became vacant, the old convention whereby the Libs and Nats agreed not to contest any seat held by the other no longer applied.

So both of them are having a go.

Raissa Butkowskiis the Liberal candidate.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON) claimed it would drop the PH part of its name last October. A lot has happened to the party since, but not that. Investigations editor Ross Jones reports.

According toThe Conversation:

Brad Robertsonis the Nationals candidate,

TheABC reports:

Robertson is, if nothing else, an optimist:

There is a paucity of published polls regarding Farrer, but the next best indicator is the mugs game of betting odds, and these indicate both the Libs and the Nats are on a hiding to nothing.

Nationally, both parties have lapsed into irrelevance, and this downward spiral looks set to continue on 9 May and probably beyond.

The apparent collapse of the Coalition has left the real contest in Farrer between independent Michelle Milthorpe and PHON candidate David Farley.

Milthorpe, who ran second to Ley in 2025, has drawn second spot on the ballot, is well-funded and has the advantage of having freshly campaigned at the 2025 Election with her volunteers and ground-game well bedded-in. She will hit the ground running, in other words.

Don't believe the News Corp bots, Pauline Hanson's One Nation failed dismally inSouth Australia and will continue to fail in every subsequent election.

Her chief opponent will be agribusiness chap, David Farley.

The mugs game has Farley as favourite, but, like all betting, this reflects perceived mood mixed with rubbery fact.

Milthorpe has run a scandal-free campaign, while Farley, being PHON, has had a few missteps, beginning with hisOnlyFans post, which incensedLyle Shelton.

The Sydney Morning Heraldrevealed that Farley had tried to join the Labor Party.The Guardianreported thatBarnaby Joycerebuked him for rejecting PHONs keystone immigration policies.

Farley alsofudgedknowing whetherGina Rinehartwas funding his campaign andbesmirchedGriffith the second largest city in Farrer.

And lastly, Farley actively endorsed the divisiveBen Roberts-Smith, including emotive posters around the electorate.

Farley has probably carried out other foot-shooting exercises, but that lot will give voters something to think about.Unless they are PHON voters, in which case they will be water off a ducks back.

At the recent 2 May by-election in the Victorian electorate ofNepean, PHON candidateDarren Hercuspolled 24.66% of the primary vote, while the winner, Liberal candidateAnthony Marsh, polled 38%.

The Sydney Morning Heraldran with:

Of course, three in four voters did not vote for One Nation; that is why a Liberal won.

Farrer is not Nepean; the latter had a Labor MP from 2018 to 2022 and is a little redder, but both by-elections were called because the Liberal member quit before their term expired.

Despite PHONs pre-poll hype, Nepean was not even close.

Farrer will have radically different preference flows, the machinations of which are beyond ken for non-psephologists.

All will be made clear on Saturday night.

It might all come down to preferences, dreamers versus RWNJs.

Are we gambling here? Milthorpe, easy.

Ross Jonesis IA's investigations editor andthe author of the two-year investigation,Ashbygate: the plot to destroy Australia's Speaker, published by IA in 2015 and availableHERE.

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